The Pond

“The Pond” analogy, refers to a pond with fresh water flowing in from the left, traveling thru the pond and exiting on right.  If a property is priced/prepared/marketed well, it enters on the left, “flows” across and exits quickly to the right.  Properties that are not priced/prepared/marketed well, sink to two different levels; “Show and Place” or the “Stagnant Mass”.  When owners find themselves in these lower levels of the pond, changes need to be made in price/preparation/marketing to get the property back in the “Flow”, so it can be sold and exit the pond.

If we look at the pond chart for the past 12 months, we see that, on average, .3 properties come on the market each month and .3 properties are sold.  This shows that, when something comes on the market (about 1 every three months) it will sell. 

With the current inventory of 1 unit for sale, that are selling at a rate of .3 per month, it would take 4 months for the property to sell (given no new supply coming on).

Given these numbers, a property owner has a 25% chance (or 1 in 4) of selling this month.